Constitutional crisis looms in the U.S. after the election, Mikkelsen says

In a gloomy online talk only a few days before next Tuesday’s vote, he gave an exhaustive explanation of the opinion polls – predicting a virtual dead heat – the campaign issues, the state of the media and the arcane electoral college system.

Mikkelsen, who was White House correspondent for seven years during a 35-year career at Reuters, predicted huge disruption if Republican Donald Trump wins, and political turmoil if Kamala Harris retains the presidency for the Democrats.

“I foresee continuing constitutional turmoil which could culminate in a full-blown crisis,” he told the well-attended briefing.

“It can fairly be said that the future of democracy in the United States will be at stake in this election, and a less democratic, more nationalist America could be the consequence of a Trump victory.”

Mikkelsen said that because of the electoral system the vote would be decided in seven swing states, even though Harris currently had a tiny national polling lead. Hillary Clinton easily lost to Trump in the electoral college in 2016 despite winning three million more votes nationally.

He said three leading poll aggregators were predicting a Trump victory even though several factors could make these predictions uncertain, including pollsters over-compensating for previous errors.

Mikkelsen noted that the election campaign had revolved around Trump’s personality and his often-outrageous comments. “It’s all people talk about,” Mikkelsen said. “He still dominates the conversation”.

In contrast, he said there was some “mystification” about Harris’s low profile as vice president and in contrast to her opponent she had conducted a more traditional, calmer campaign focussing on abortion and Trump’s threat to U.S. democracy.

Turning to the media, Mikkelsen said the big newspapers that had traditionally set the election agenda were in decline and the rival campaigns had courted major online influencers who have a wider reach. Cable news networks were also very influential, especially the pro-Trump Fox News.

The campaign was marked by false information, lies and disinformation with China, Russia and Iran alleged to have been involved.  

The recent controversy over the refusal of the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times under the instruction of their billionaire owners to endorse a candidate in face of threats from Trump has unleashed a spirited debate, he said. The Post has lost an extraordinary 200,000 subscribers.

The New York Times has also come under attack for allegedly “sanewashing” Trump by not writing about his more outrageous and vulgar statements and not focusing on his mental acuity as it did with President Joe Biden.

Mikkelsen said Reuters was doing as good a job as any but questioned whether its objective reporting appealed to ordinary American readers in an age of deeply polarised opinion. He suggested the introduction of a paywall just before the vote may have been badly timed.

In answer to a question, Mikkelsen said “fascist” was an appropriate term for Trump. He said fears of a threat to democracy had been stoked by his statements, including labelling Democrats “the enemy within”, calling for potential “termination” of the constitution and saying he would be a dictator “only on the first day”.  He had threatened political trials for opponents including Harris, Biden and former President Barack Obama.

Thirteen of his former officials had published a letter calling him a threat to the constitution and citing his admiring comments about Hitler, Mikkelsen said. ■