Trump likely to lose House but Senate much tighter-Debusmann

In a highly topical survey of U.S. politics less than three weeks before the election, Debusmann told an online talk on October 15 that voting will be dominated by the cost of living, particularly the price of petrol, which has made Trump very unpopular because of the Iran war.

“The main thing to remember with the midterms and …particularly in this one, is that really, issues-wise, nothing else matters besides affordability…the day-to-day economics of living in the United States.”

Debusmann, previously a Reuters correspondent in Mexico and New York who now reports on President Trump for the BBC, said talking to ordinary people, “Nothing else really comes up”.

Even the need to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon was a very abstract concept to most Americans. “What is far less abstract is the price of petrol, for example,” he said adding that it was now around $4.30 a gallon compared to less than $3.00 before the Iran war.

Debusmann, son of the veteran Reuters correspondent, cited a poll showing that 76 percent of Republicans thought the war had been bad for the cost of living. “So, from a domestic standpoint, that is, it has been a disaster… that will ultimately be what really decides this midterm”

He noted that the price of fuel didn’t just affect motorists but fertiliser and diesel used by farmers in normally solidly Republican agricultural states like Texas, Kansas and North Carolina.  

Trump was no longer the decisive vote-winner for Republican candidates that he believed, with his approval rating around 36 percent or less compared to 43 percent at the same point in his first term.

Trump told voters to imagine they were voting for him in congressional races, “He is, in a way, perhaps doing those candidates a disservice because …it is about voting for a man who is not very popular.”

If Democrats won both houses, they were likely to launch investigations into Trump and his family, including their ties with cryptocurrency corporations and whether the U.S. was prepared for a conflict with Iran, he said.

If Republicans retained control of the Senate, which he saw as more likely, the result would probably be two years of legislative deadlock before the next presidential election, also bad news for Trump.

Turning to the Democrats, Debusmann said they had learned from their defeats to Trump that many Americans were distrustful of professional politicians and were fielding blue collar or “liberal conservative candidates” and even staunchly religious figures.

The rising left wing of the Democrats was appealing to working class people who previously supported Trump, but there was a split between them and more centrist elements in the party, contributing to the lack of outstanding candidates for the presidential election in two years’ time.  

In contrast, Debusmann said two of Trump’s closest aides, Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance were clear front-runners to succeed him, and he is likely to decide which it is. Rubio appeals more to the traditional Republican Party while Vance is more popular with Trump’s MAGA base.

In answer to questions, Debusmann said the slump in Trump’s popularity had also impacted MAGA. Some former supporters would not swing to the Democrats but may not vote at all.

Asked about Trump’s abrasive relationship with some of the U.S. media, he said he had not experienced this personally but the president tended to react angrily to what he saw as hostile questions.

However, he praised the “unique” access that Trump gives reporters compared to other world leaders or his predecessor Joe Biden. He said Trump really enjoyed answering questions and would stop to talk to reporters three to five times a week and sometimes more.

This combined with his heavy use of social media had undercut the role of his press secretary, Debusmann said, speaking a day before the firing of the latest incumbent, Katie Zacharia, after only five days.  

In contrast to allegations that Trump is suffering from memory losses and the inability to articulate properly, Debusmann said he was “very, very sharp” and could be charming and funny.

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